The Technology and Innovation Centres (or Hauser Centres) that David Cameron is set to announce today as part of the National Infrastructure Plan are a kind of intermediate institution. The idea is to fill a gap between the basic research done in university departments and the concrete product R&D that companies do.
The gap is quaquaversal. It extends in every direction into technologies, industries and scientific disciplines. How a country effectively bridges it is an unending source of discussion to innovation theorists. You can spend a lot of money on it but the impact is hard to measure. The Office of Budget Responsibility will not be issuing any job forecasts to accompany Cameron's announcement.
Under Labour, spending on bridging the gap came through four routes: the Technology Strategy Board, Regional Development Agencies, research councils and the Higher Education Innovation Fund run by the Higher Education Funding Council for England. The RDAs have been spending £300m - £400m a year in this area, the TSB about the same, the spending on these objectives by the research councils is difficult to add up and HEIF's budget is £150m. In round terms, it's about £1 billion a year.
In addition, remember that the point of all this intermediate spending is ultimately to strengthen commercial activity, in particular R&D by British businesses. So we also have to consider the tax credits for R&D initiated by Labour. These cost the government around £700m a year.
What is happening to all this spending totalling around £1.7bn during the deepest cuts in public spending for decades?
Bar the tax credits, all of it is inside the budget of the Department for Business Innovation and Skills. Here, the science budget comprising the research councils, HEIF and QR research spending by HEFCE is flat cash - ie small cuts each year after allowing for inflation. The rest we haven't been told about. But aside from the science budget, we know the BIS budget is subject to large cuts. And the government has already announced that regional spending is to be hacked back severely.
So HEIF looks all right. We have a moderate squeeze on the research councils that could turn into a bigger squeeze on the tech end of their spending. The regional bit is due for a big - possibly huge - cut. The TSB is a mystery. And the tax credits bit is a mystery.
I asked David Willetts about spending at the TSB, in the regions and on tax credits after the spending review. He said he was a big fan of the TSB and left it at that. It doesn't inspire confidence.
So we are probably facing quite substantial cuts overall in that total of £1.7bn. I hope I'm wrong about that. But at the end of the day, the Hauser Centres are just a test of a new mechanism that may or may not work in the UK. To claim that the government is "pro-growth" as Cameron did on Sunday, the Coalition needs to do a lot more than make showy announcements. It needs to tell us what the complete picture is on innovation spending. Otherwise, why should we take it seriously?
The National Infrastructure Plan published by the Treasury this morning helpfully includes a section on "Intellectual capital" and is the kind of place we should find a complete picture. Unfortunately, it is silent on almost all the important questions.
See also Why Cameron lacks credibility on growth, and, for the good news about Coalition policy on innovation, Today I gave David Willetts flowers. Have I gone mad?