A forecast of average tuition fees in England, done right

I hate to be a party pooper when the media is gripped by tuition fees Angstlust, but the BBC is almost certainly wrong today when it says "at least two-thirds of universities in England want to charge £9,000 a year for some or all courses" and the Guardian is misleading people when it headlines average fees of £8,679. The picture is indeed grim, but David Willetts is right when he says the real figures are likely to be significantly lower.

The reason for the confusion is that these sorts of headline figures fail to take account of the skewed distribution of universities that have actually announced their fee levels. Lots of universities in the high-flying Russell Group have declared at £9,000. Lots of universities in the harder pressed Million+ group have not.

Drawing an average for the entire sector by relying on a simple arithmetical average of the fees declared is as flawed as trying to take the political temperature of the country with an opinion poll that never leaves the Home Counties. The universities that have declared first are mostly those that have the easiest decision to make, and these are often those who want to charge the full £9,000 for everything.

If you want a more realistic picture, you have to take account of what we know about the differences between universities. This is what our model of likely fee levels at Research Fortnight does. It is based on the idea that the level of fees is primarily based on the prestige of universities which in turn is linked to research quality, which we have a good objective measure of. And it is doing quite well. Here's the scatterplot with the latest data.

This chart is only for the lower half of the data. The upper half is all turning out at £9,000, as our model forecast.

The model's not perfect by a long way. But it's better than ignoring the problems with a simple arithmetical average and we've tried modelling the data on other bases, including the Times Good University Guide, graduate prospects and entry grades. None comes close to research quality for fitting the actual data.

And looking at our table below, you can see the skew. 29 institutions in the top half have declared, but only 21 in the bottom half.

Three weeks ago, with 16 university announcements, we were forecasting an average of £8,600 for undergraduate courses (not foundation courses or other non-degree courses). That analysis was cited by the Daily Mirror, Daily Telegraph, Independent, PA and BBC. Two weeks ago, with data from 30 universities, we were predicting an average of £8,300. Today, with 50 universities now declared, we are predicting an average advertised fee of £8,400. That's about £300 a year lower than the Guardian figure.

After weighting to allow for the number of undergraduates at each institution, the average advertised fee faced by students we are forecasting rises to £8,600.

And after allowing a (guesstimated) average of 4 per cent for tuition fee waivers, the average fee actually to be paid by students that we are forecasting is now £8,300.

Meanwhile, contrary to the BBC's top line, our model suggest about half the universities are likely to charge the full £9,000 a year (though some others will undoubtedly charge £9,000 for some courses).

Forecasts

See here for methodology and caveats

University	RF QI	Set	Forecast
London School of Economics	60.3		9000
University of Cambridge	60.3	9000	9000
University of Oxford	59.8	9000	9000
Imperial College London	58.2	9000	9000
University College London	55.8	9000	9000
University of Manchester	54.4	9000	9000
University of Warwick	53.4	9000	9000
University of York	53.0		9000
University of Essex	52.9	9000	9000
University of Durham	51.2	9000	9000
Queen Mary, University of London	51.2	9000	9000
University of Bristol	50.8		9000
University of Sheffield	50.7	9000	9000
Lancaster University	50.7	9000	9000
University of Southampton	50.6	9000	9000
University of Leeds	50.4	9000	9000
University of Bath	50.4	9000	9000
King's College	50.3		9000
Royal Holloway, University of London	49.9	9000	9000
University of Nottingham	49.5		9000
Goldsmiths College	48.5		9000
University of Birmingham	48.3	9000	9000
Loughborough University	48.2	9000	9000
School of Oriental and African Studies	48.1	9000	9000
Birkbeck College	47.9	9000	9000
University of Exeter	47.8	9000	9000
University of Kent	47.6	9000	9000
University of Newcastle	47.6		9000
University of Sussex	47.6		9000
University of the Arts London	47.3	9000	9000
University of East Anglia	46.6		9000
University of Surrey	46.5	9000	9000
University of Liverpool	45.2	9000	9000
University of Reading	44.9	9000	9000
City University	44.4		9000
Royal Veterinary College	44.4		9000
University of Leicester	42.3	9000	9000
Aston University	42.1	9000	9000
University of Brighton	41.6		9000
Keele University	41.3	9000	9000
University of Hertfordshire*	41.1		9000
University of Salford	40.4		9000
Birmingham City University	40.2		9000
University of Hull	39.7		9000
University of Bradford	39.3	9000	9000
Brunel University	39.1		8500
De Montfort University	39.1		8500
St George's, University of London	37.8	9000	8500
University of East London	37.1	9000	8500
University of Westminster	36.9		8500
University of Portsmouth	36.7	8500	8500
London South Bank University	36.6	8390	8500
Bournemouth University	35.8		8500
Oxford Brookes University	35.6		8500
Roehampton University	35.2	8000	8500
University of the West of England	34.8		8500
Nottingham Trent University	34.8		8500
Middlesex University	34.7		8500
University of Plymouth	34.6		8500
Liverpool John Moores University	34.2	9000	8500
Manchester Metropolitan	34.1	8500	8500
University of Northumbria	34.1	8500	8500
University of Huddersfield	32.8	7950	8500
Sheffield Hallam University	32.5		8500
Anglia Ruskin University	32.4	8000	8500
Leeds Metropolitan University	32.4	8500	8500
University of Bedfordshire	31.6		8500
Kingston University	31.3	8600	8500
University of Wolverhampton	31.0		8500
University of Derby	29.8	7395	8500
University of Teesside	29.8	8500	8500
University of Central Lancashire	29.7	9000	8000
University for the Creative Arts	29.4		8000
University of Lincoln	28.9		8000
University of Greenwich	28.2		8000
University of Sunderland	27.6		8000
Bath Spa University	27.3		8000
Harper Adams UC	27.2	9000	8000
Coventry University	27.0	8000	8000
London Metropolitan University	26.8	6500	8000
St Mary's UC (Twickenham)	26.3	8000	8000
Canterbury Christ Church	25.8		8000
University of Bolton	24.8		8000
University of Chester	23.7		8000
Thames Valley University	23.5		8000
University of Gloucestershire	23.5		8000
Buckinghamshire New University	23.4		8000
University of Northampton	22.8		8000
Staffordshire University	22.4		8000
Southampton Solent University	20.1	7800	7500
Liverpool Hope University	18.7		7500
Bishop Grosseteste UC	14.5	7500	7500
University of Cumbria	14.2		7500

*Hertfordshire excluded until it clarifies the prices it is charging for undergraduate courses.

Comments

[Neuroskeptic]

I was just about to come over here and leave a comment to this effect! Great minds...:)

The BBC's projection is off. According to my chart which is slightly different to yours, I predict exactly the same as you, the top half will charge £9000, the bottom half will charge £7500-9000 but generally at the top end of that range. Overall average £8,500+.

[MattC]

I think you're being overly harsh on the Guardian and the BBC - whilst it's true that they are not really correcting for who is announcing their fees, they aren't doing very badly.

After all, the Guardian states an average of £8,679.20 (got to love meaningless precision) and your model produces £8,600. I don't think you can claim that they have neglected a terribly important factor if it only has a 1% error (or 3% if you take it between 6 and 9 thousand).
You've also neglected a factor which is about half the size - you have averaged across universities rather than students. Larger universities, it seems are planning to charge slightly more, so there's about a £40 increase if you include that average. (I did the sums myself on this using your model no.s and student no.s from HESA for UGs from 2008/9).

Of course, if you include tuition fee waivers they will be charging less - and these could well have a significant effect. But that's not what you've criticised the Guardian for. And it's also not what they've written about.

Further, on the BBC - you could criticise them for choosing a sensationalist statistic, but it seems fair enough to predict that more than two thirds of universities will charge £9000 on at least some courses. Taking the rankings you've put up, I've assumed the top 50 will all charge £9000. Out of the bottom 43, 18 have declared (you have Anglia Ruskin as £8000, but neither THE nor the Guardian have their fees, and I couldn't find a declaration from them on a cursory Google). Out of that 18, 3 intend to charge £9000 across the board - but a further 4 will charge £9000 for some courses. Extrapolating across the lower group, gives 17 universities who will charge £9000 on some courses. This gives 67/93 = 72% of universities charging £9000 for some. They might be a little overconfident, but if all that top 50 do charge £9000 for some courses, only 5 more universities (from 25) need to charge £9000 for some courses for their statement to be true.

I hope this is helpful.

[William Cullerne Bown]

@MattC Apologies - I've obviously not been clear on some points here.

1. I *have* adjusted for student numbers. That's the bit where I say "After weighting to allow for the number of undergraduates at each institution, the average advertised fee faced by students we are forecasting rises to £8,600." (What's going on is spelled out in more detail in the earlier post covering the methodology). This is what bumps my average up to a figure close to the Guardian's. But this is *not* the figure the Guardian is calculating. Essentially, the Guardian is making two mistakes, both of around £300, but by chance these happen to cancel out rather than add up.

2. On the BBC, I take your point. But even our 93 is a subset of the full 120-odd universities - and the extra 30 or so are nearly all in the bottom half. So it again looks to me as if they are arriving at a figure that is close-ish by accident rather than design.

I just think the big news media wouldn't get away with such a cavalier approach to opinion polling. Why should we make allowances for them on tuition fees?