Forecasting university tuition fees

Update 19 April: The latest version of the forecasts can be found here.

On tuition fees, the general picture in England is clear. Top universities will charge the full £9,000. Less prestigious universities will charge less. But where does the "top" end, how low will the bottom go and what's going to happen in the middle?

These are crucial questions for potential students trying to decide whether uni is worth it, universities trying to balance their books and ministers worrying about paying for all those (much bigger) student loans. And the data points we've got from the universities that have announced their fees start to provide answers to these questions.

An enlightening picture emerges from some modelling we've done with data from Research Benchmarks to look at the likely level of fees universities will charge.

The biggest factor in the level of fees a university can support is prestige. In this, universities are little different from brands such as car makers. Mercedes Benz can charge more for cars than Toyota because of its reputation in the marketplace.

Where universities differ from car makers is in what they have to do to maintain their prestige. Mercedes need to make cars that actually are better than Toyota's - otherwise its brand value decays. But top universities don't obviously have to provide better teaching. Their prestige lies elsewhere, mainly in research. That's the thing that most strongly influences the impression of employers, and hence the value of a degree in the jobs market.

In research, every department in the country is judged periodically in the Research Assessment Exercise. On the basis of the 2008 RAE therefore we can score every university on the quality of its research, providing a good proxy for its prestige in the market.

At Research Fortnight we have done this with the Research Fortnight Quality Index and the league table below shows the universities with significant undergraduates ranked in terms of their RF QI.

Glancing at the table, you can see immediately that it is not perfect. Few would rank the LSE (good as it is) above Oxford or Cambridge in terms of prestige.

On the other hand, the ratings do correspond quite closely to the kind of informal ranking we all keep in our head. Oxbridge is at the top. Then other Russell Group places and some of the smaller 1994 Group ones. The former polytechnics are mainly in the lower reaches.

So in terms of getting a picture of what's likely in the sector overall, the RF QI is quite a good starting point. And if we put in the data points from the six universities that have declared, then we can start to see what is going on.

At the top, it looks like the £9,000 club is going to extend quite a long way down. Exeter and Surrey are 26 and 32 in our table. That is a third of the way to the bottom.

At the bottom, the thing to note is how close to the very bottom is the one place that has committed to low fees, London Met. It is ranked 82 out of 95. The other place that has promised to go low, Liverpool Hope, is ranked even lower at third from bottom. This suggests that London Met's fees - which it promises will be between £6k and £7k - are close to the floor of what universities will charge.

Now we can get a first approximation of what to expect from other universities in the next month or so by assuming that their tuition fee level will on average reflect their position in the RF QI table. In that case, looking at the table below, we can draw the following conclusions:

* No university will go below £6,000

* The average level of fees will be £8,000 (as opposed to the government's expectation of £7,500)

* The "top" is deep - a third of universities will charge the full £9,000

* The "middle" is expensive - two thirds of universities will charge £7,500 or more.

* The "bottom" is small - only a third of universities will charge £6,000 - £7,000.

Well, it's a crude model based on a small number of data points. The caveats are too numerous to mention. But it's as good a picture as we're going to get with what we know today.

The consequences if this forecast is borne out will be severe, for the level of fees it suggests are significantly higher than the government intended.

For students, it means bigger debts. And for the government, that may mean increased resentment from students and parents.

For the Treasury, it means the threat of higher lending for student loans and an increase in the national debt.

For the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, it means warnings against "clustering at the top end" have been ignored and increased pressure to dictate student numbers.

For universities, it means lingering uncertainty as to how the government will respond.

I will update this model as more universities declare their level of fees.

Updated with Manchester and Warwick, 23 March (though no forecasts change).

University	RF QI	Set	Forecast
London School of Economics	60.3		9000
University of Cambridge	60.3	9000	9000
University of Oxford	59.8	9000	9000
Imperial College London	58.2		9000
University College London	55.8		9000
University of Manchester	54.4	9000	9000
University of Warwick	53.4	9000	9000
University of York	53.0		9000
University of Essex	52.9	9000	9000
University of Durham	51.2	9000	9000
Queen Mary, University of London	51.2		9000
University of Bristol	50.8		9000
University of Sheffield	50.7		9000
Lancaster University	50.7		9000
University of Southampton	50.6		9000
University of Leeds	50.4		9000
University of Bath	50.4		9000
King's College	50.3		9000
Royal Holloway, University of London	49.9		9000
University of Nottingham	49.5		9000
Goldsmiths College	48.5		9000
University of Birmingham	48.3		9000
Loughborough University	48.2		9000
School of Oriental and African Studies	48.1		9000
Birkbeck College	47.9		9000
University of Exeter	47.8	9000	9000
University of Kent	47.6		9000
University of Newcastle	47.6		9000
University of Sussex	47.6		9000
University of the Arts London	47.3		9000
University of East Anglia	46.6		9000
University of Surrey	46.5	9000	9000
University of Liverpool	45.2		9000
University of Reading	44.9		9000
Open University	44.6		9000
City University	44.4		9000
Royal Veterinary College	44.4		9000
Cranfield University	43.7		8500
University of Leicester	42.3		8500
Aston University	42.1		8500
University of Brighton	41.6		8500
Keele University	41.3		8500
University of Hertfordshire	41.1		8500
University of Salford	40.4		8500
Birmingham City University	40.2		8500
University of Hull	39.7		8500
University of Bradford	39.3		8500
Brunel University	39.1		8000
De Montfort University	39.1		8000
St George's, University of London	37.8		8000
University of East London	37.1		8000
University of Westminster	36.9		8000
University of Portsmouth	36.7		8000
London South Bank University	36.6		8000
Bournemouth University	35.8		8000
Oxford Brookes University	35.6		8000
Roehampton University	35.2		8000
University of the West of England	34.8		7500
Nottingham Trent University	34.8		7500
Middlesex University	34.7		7500
University of Plymouth	34.6		7500
Liverpool John Moores University	34.2		7500
Manchester Metropolitan University	34.1		7500
University of Northumbria	34.1		7500
University of Huddersfield	32.8		7500
Sheffield Hallam University	32.5		7500
Anglia Ruskin University	32.4		7500
Leeds Metropolitan University	32.4		7000
University of Bedfordshire	31.6		7000
Kingston University	31.3		7000
University of Wolverhampton	31.0		7000
University of Derby	29.8		7000
University of Teesside	29.8		7000
University of Central Lancashire	29.7		7000
University for the Creative Arts	29.4		7000
University of Lincoln	28.9		7000
University of Greenwich	28.2		7000
University of Sunderland	27.6		6500
Bath Spa University	27.3		6500
Harper Adams University College	27.2		6500
Coventry University	27.0		6500
London Metropolitan University	26.8	6500	6500
Canterbury Christ Church University	25.8		6500
University of Bolton	24.8		6500
University of Chester	23.7		6500
Thames Valley University	23.5		6500
University of Gloucestershire	23.5		6500
Buckinghamshire New University	23.4		6000
University of Northampton	22.8		6000
Staffordshire University	22.4		6000
Southampton Solent University	20.1		6000
Liverpool Hope University	18.7		6000
University of Cumbria	14.2		6000

Comments

[Andy Lawrence]

Could I state the obvious and note that this article doesn't include the words "England" or "English" ? The Scottish and Welsh situations are in some ways even scarier. Look forward to an article on that.

[William Cullerne Bown]

Good point. Now fixed. What makes Wales and Scotland scarier?

[Andy Lawrence]

Someone else can comment on Wales, but Scotland is scarier because a large deficit looms. SNP are committed to HE being completely free for Scots (eg not bringing back the old "Graduate Contribution") but then are forced into charging full fees for English students. At the moment, English students get a bargain in Scotland so we have lots. But if its no cheaper than English Universities they may stop coming and then the Scottish funding plan doesn't add up....

[Tricia Scott]

So many flaws in this piece - where to begin?
1. Does the RAE actually measure the quality of research? the whole question of what is quality in research is open to debate.
2. How is quality of research a basis for setting fees? - fees are payments for teaching and researchers aren't necessarily good teachers - in fact they often avoid teaching. And if there is any measure which assesses a university's ability to transfer research into better teaching I've not seen it.
3. Your piece, like league tables themselves, is no more than an apology for the continued practice of giving to those that have at the expense of the have-nots
4. Who says Mercedes cars are "better" than Toyotas? It depends what criteria you set for your choice of car. Similarly with higher education: people need to be able to distinguish between institutions based on the criteria that matter for them.

[William Cullerne Bown]

@Andy For precisely that reason, I've been assuming the Scottish government will keep fees lower than in England.

[William Cullerne Bown]

@Tricia Thanks for the comment. Given the explicit crudeness of the exercise, I can't get worked up about the flaws you've identified. But just to clarify: 1) Seems a pointless quibble when billions turn on the RAE ratings; 2) It may be unfair and wrong but that's just how it is; 3) Don't shoot the messenger; 4) My language could have been more objective but really, why be so literal!

[Rodney Breen]

I've stuck my neck out and said I think most Universities will charge the top fee. If not, they should do. (Not that I'm in favour of fees, it's just a question of psychology):

http://www.lifeasithappens.com/blog/?p=242

[Dr Aust]

None of it much of a surprise. If I may quote myself from one of your comments threads back in early November:

http://exquisitelife.researchresearch.com/exquisite_life/2010/11/analysing-the-governments-response-to-the-browne-review.html

"Though the Russell Group's statement... does not say anything specific, one assumes their default position is likely to be to charge £ 9K across the board. At least, that would be my prediction. Any other opinions?"

The only slight surprise is that £ 9K now seems likely to go down the rankings far as all the pre-92 Univs (see e.g. Aston). Given that, I predict that some of the post-92s (Oxford Brookes?) will set £ 9K too.

More discussion - including what the knock-on effects for Univ teaching staff are likely to be - over here:

http://occamstypewriter.org/notranting/2011/03/24/no-surprises-likely-on-uk-university-fees/

[William Cullerne Bown]

Dr Aust - you've been spot on so far. And since I am being tweeted by academics saying these forecasts are still too *low*, I suspect you may well end up being right about the Oxford Brookes et al as well. Are you after my job?

[Neuroskeptic]

I've got a graph of the currenty announced fees vs the 2011 rankings here.

Since Leeds Met, well into the bottom half of the rankings, announced £8,500, my personal prediction is mean fees of over £8,500.

[Neuroskeptic]

Sorry, here it is
http://neuroskeptic.blogspot.com/2011/03/british-government-fails-maths.html

[Dr Aust]

Don't worry, William. I'm not after your job... though judging by the way the Universities are going, I may be looking for one sooner rather than later.

As an amateur commentator I am just pleased when my own tea-leaf readings are so close to the professional commentators' take. And it does occasionally allow me (within my own institution) to cultivate a reputation as a person who is mysteriously well-informed. I try not to demystify this by telling my colleagues that this means "someone who reads things other than scientific papers".

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